It hasn’t always played out as expected. Often criticized and generally confusing, the Electoral College has given rise to wild scenarios–and it could do so again this year. If the presidential race remains tight, it’s possible that Vice President Al Gore could lose the popular vote but win the Oval Office. Stranger still, it’s conceivable that Gore and George W. Bush will finish tied in the electoral tally.
Those farfetched political-junkie fantasies could come true because of the structure of the system. Technically, votes cast on Election Day do not pick a president. Instead, they select “electors” who pledge support for a particular candidate. Each state is granted one elector per senator and House member. All but two states, Maine and Nebraska, use a winner-take-all method of doling out electoral votes. With 435 House members and 100 senators, plus three electors for the District of Columbia, the total number of electors stands at 538. A majority of 270 is needed for victory. In case no candidate reaches the magic number, the 12th Amendment, ratified in 1804, dictates that the House select a president and the Senate a vice president.
The twisted possibilities have been played out before. In 1800, Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr ran on the same ticket and received 73 electoral votes each. The House took 36 ballots to decide the race in Jefferson’s favor. Three other times a candidate has lost the popular vote but still won the White House: John Quincy Adams in 1824, Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876 and Benjamin Harrison in 1888. Gore has a chance this year. Bush may well rack up huge margins in Texas and other states in the South and West, but Gore could win by eking out victories in elector-rich states like California, New York, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida. In fact, a statistical analysis of polls by Columbia University professors suggests that Bush would need at least a 2 percent margin in the popular vote to swing the odds his way electorally.
While a controversial split outcome would surely bring renewed calls for reform, the electoral high jinks wouldn’t necessarily stop there. Electors in 26 states are not bound by the popular vote, meaning some so-called faithless electors could bow to public pressure and support the “people’s choice.”
If Bush and Gore garner 269 electoral votes each–extremely unlikely–things could get weirder. Assuming no electors switch sides, on Jan. 6, 2001, the 107th Congress would meet, with each state delegation getting one vote and a 26-state majority needed for victory.
Could this all really be what the Founding Fathers had in mind? Not exactly. Some, experts say, expected the process to be even more complicated, with as many as 19 of every 20 elections decided by the House. Maybe this year, the system will actually work as it was meant to.
